In recent years, climate change has brought new challenges to communities around the world, particularly those dependent on agriculture for their livelihoods. Droughts, often more frequent and severe, can cause crop failures, pushing individuals to migrate in search of better opportunities. This blog draws on research - conducted in collaboration with Katrin Millock, Lucile Dehouck and Alix Debray - in West Africa, investigating whether irrigation access can mitigate incentives to migrate when faced with climate-induced droughts.

The Climate-Migration Nexus

Migration as an adaptation strategy in response to climate change is a well-discussed topic, but existing research often overlooks alternative strategies that could help people stay in their communities. Irrigation, a crucial factor for stabilizing agricultural production, has the potential to alleviate the need for migration by ensuring crop yields remain reliable even during droughts.

West Africa, a region characterized by high agricultural dependence and vulnerability to climate change, served as the perfect case study for our research. We used individual-level data from the Gallup World Poll, along with satellite data tracking irrigation coverage and drought intensity, across 13 West African countries between 2008 and 2015. The aim was to analyze the extent to which irrigation could reduce migration intentions following drought.

Key Findings

Our research found that irrigation plays a significant role in reducing migration intentions, particularly in rural areas where agricultural livelihoods are most affected by drought. Interestingly, the impact of irrigation was most pronounced in regions with dry climates and where agriculture is highly dependent on water. The data showed that in these regions, people were less likely to express intentions to migrate when irrigation was available, suggesting that access to irrigation mitigates the worst effects of drought by stabilizing crop production.

This relationship is clearly demonstrated in the figure below, which shows the predicted probability of declaring an intention to migrate at different irrigation levels (i.e. shares of irrigated cropland). The figure highlights that the relationship between drought and the likelihood of migration changes depending on irrigation coverage, highlighting the context-dependent nature of this mitigating effect. 

Figure 1 The predicted probability of declaring an intention to migrate at different irrigation levels

Notes: Marginal effects from the benchmark regression in evaluated for a male respondent in a rural location, aged 20-29, with low education and no international network.

Additionally, we found that irrigation did not have the same effect in urban areas. This highlights the different dynamics at play in rural versus urban regions, where agriculture is less central to the local economy. Our findings point to the importance of targeted irrigation policies in reducing migration pressures in drought-prone rural areas.

Challenges and Policy Implications

Although the results are promising, our research also underscores the importance of further investment in irrigation infrastructure. Developing irrigation systems in drought-affected regions could provide farmers with the tools they need to continue their livelihoods locally, rather than being forced to migrate. This is crucial not only for the individuals involved but also for broader economic and food security concerns, as smallholder farms contribute significantly to global food production.

At the same time, our study recognizes the limitations of relying solely on irrigation. While it can be an effective mitigation strategy, it is not a panacea. Policymakers should consider a combination of adaptation measures, such as crop diversification and improved drought-resistant seeds, to provide a more holistic response to the challenges posed by climate change.

Personal Experience: My TNA Visit

During my TNA visit, the collaboration with fellow economists led to significant progress in refining our research approach. The exchange of ideas and expertise not only advanced the project but also fostered new insights into the complex relationship between climate change, migration, and adaptation strategies. The vibrant research environment at PSE, with its active migration research community, encouraged collaboration and created opportunities for ongoing partnerships that will continue to contribute to this important area of study.

Conclusion

Our study contributes to the broader understanding of how alternative adaptation mechanisms, such as irrigation, can play a vital role in reducing migration pressures in the face of climate change. By focusing on West Africa, a region highly susceptible to climate shocks, we highlighted the importance of investing in irrigation and other adaptation strategies to safeguard both livelihoods and food security. As the climate continues to change, these insights will be crucial for shaping policies aimed at mitigating the impacts of environmental changes on human mobility.